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Prediction for CME (2026-08-08T03:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-08-08T03:23Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/48024/-1
CME Note: CME observed to the N/NW in SOHO LASCO C2 and not yet in LASCO C3 before a DSN gap begins at 2026-08-08T05:00Z. The CME is visible to the N/NW in GOES CCOR-1 but heavily obscured by the pylon. The CME is best seen to the NE in STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption on the north central disk; the full eruption spans approximately N28E35 to N08W00, centered ~N20E10 in SDO AIA 193. The eruption is observed as filament ejecta and double ribbon flare in SDO AIA 304 first lifting around 2026-08-08T00:48Z and fully erupting at 2026-08-08T02:10Z. The CME is also seen as a prominence on the NE limb of STEREO A EUVI 195/304. Dimming, field line movement, and post eruptive arcades are observed in SDO AIA 171/193. | Characterized by a jump in B_total from 5.6nT to 9.8nT, with B_z initially flipping northward and southward +-5nT. Alongside a jump in speed from ~350km/s to ~400km/s, density from 3.07p/cc to 7.09p/cc, and temperature from 45.3kK to 167kK.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-08-11T10:32Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-08-11T03:08Z
Prediction Method: OSPREI
Prediction Method Note: 
Ensemble Request:
  Number of OSPREI runs: 1
Target Source:
satellite: Earth
Simulation Start:
Start date and time: 2026-08-08 09:40
CME Properties:
Radial distance of the CME at the start of the simulation: 21.5
CME latitude: 24
CME longitude: 5
CME tilt: -63
CME velocity: 574
CME AW (face on): 33
CME AWp (edge on): 11
CME Mass: 5.9
Aspect ratio - central axis: 0.75
Aspect ratio - cross section: 1
Flux Rope Properties:
Handedness/poloidal field sign: -1
Axial field sign: -1
ANTEATR Settings:
Simulate CME-driven sheath: True
Lead Time: 60.03 hour(s)
Difference: 7.40 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2026-08-08T22:30Z
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